Slaughter cows and bulls steady to $2 higher. Hopefully the low is in for the fall but I guess we’ll see. There’s been really good demand for slaughter cows all fall. Calf market continues to advance based on quickly diminishing supplies and a more positive futures market. I just feel like I should finish my thoughts from last week quickly. When I read it again I felt like I didn’t do a very good job of that. The financial markets are pricing in higher interest rates and higher inflation for longer due to bigger deficits and more tariffs causing higher prices for consumers. The thoughtis  that this would have the effect of reducing beef demand in the future. I guess we’ll have to see. Right now it seems that the extremely positive fundamental situation makes these problems not as important. So I think while the economic situation is perhaps less favourable it doesn’t change our outlook very much. Looking ahead to bred sales it seems like heifers will trade from $4000-5500 per head. Seems like lots of money but it’s still historically quite cheap when compared to calf prices.  Have a good week. Ian.

Slaughter cows and bulls basically steady with last week. The US cull market has bottomed and is starting to rally slightly so maybe we’ll start to see that too. Calf prices continue to improve on declining numbers and more buyers entering the market. Lots of people have asked us what the effects of the US election will be on the cattle markets. There is no one on the planet that knows the answer to that. However, the financial markets may be giving us a clue. The stock market has rallied significantly based on expectations of increased government spending and deregulation. Interest rate futures have increased as well, based on much higher deficits due to decreased tax revenue and high government spending. Inflation is expected to increase based on tariffs on most imported goods. We just do not know what to expect on agricultural products as it seems like they will exempted but no one knows. So I think we can summarize the impact by saying we can expect a higher interest rate and higher inflation rate environment for longer. However, I believe that the fundamentals of the beef market are so strong that any negative effects from a US administration will be minor and mostly annoying, but I don’t think it changes our extremely positive outlook for the beef industry. We shall see. I’m guided by the fact that what political parties say to get elected is usually different than what they have to do once they’re in government. Ian

Regular Sale Featuring Calves Plus Feeders & Slaughter Cows & Bulls

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Overnight / Pre-weigh
Pre-weigh Feeders will be sold sorted in lots of your own Cattle

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Calf Sale

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Overnight / Pre-weigh
Pre-weigh Feeders will be sold sorted in lots of your own Cattle

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Slaughter cows and bulls stabilized this week, supported by good demand and the addition of one more packer buyer. Yearlings steady to stronger again. Calf market is holding very firm, not really getting higher but showing resilience in the face of very large numbers. Some industry participants and market operators are optimistic about a big, late fall calf run. I’m not so sure.  Southern Saskatchewan and Alberta have already seen peak numbers and volumes will drop precipitously after next week. In 10 days the fireworks will be over here too.  As of Friday afternoon, according to Canfax, auction market volumes (including all video and forward delivery sales) were down 19% on a year to date basis. We have very little time to make that up. We’ll see what happens but my belief is that the calf run will be shockingly smaller due to reduced cow numbers and a sneaky high heifer retention. This will be very supportive to late season calf prices.  Ian

Calf Sale Featuring The Sedalia Cattlemen’s Calf Sale

Plus all other consignors

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Overnight / Pre-weigh
Pre-weigh Feeders will be sold sorted in lots of your own Cattle

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Slaughter cows and bulls $10-15 lower, pressured by big cow volumes and one packer being off the market.  Packers are losing hundreds of dollars on every cow they kill so they are trying to get the cows bought cheaper. They’re finding it hard though, as cow numbers are much lower due to a historically small cow herd and a tentative herd rebuilding effort. Expect the cow market to perform better than expectations even through the run. Yearling market $12-15 higher. Calves higher again, especially good quality. The big volumes right around the corner will test the resilience of this market but for now it looks extremely firm with a smaller herd and rapidly improving futures.  Ian

Calf Sale Featuring The Sounding Lake Calf Sale

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Overnight / Pre-weigh
Pre-weigh Feeders will be sold sorted in lots of your own Cattle

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Slaughter cows and bulls $5-8 stronger, defying the seasonal trend. Low numbers being offered may be the reason.  Yearlingss took a big jump higher this week, up $10.  The calf market began responding to a recovering futures market a few weeks ago but finally the yearlings are catching up. I just wanted to address the heifer-steer price spread this year.  Heifers will always be worth less than steers. This is due to an approximately 15% poorer performance in the feedlot and a much lighter slaughter weight. However, some years are more extreme than others. When grain is high the spread is wider because of the poorer feedlot performance. That has been true the last couple years. What also comes into play is where we are in the cattle cycle. The last few years we have been in a liquidation phase where way fewer heifers have been retained for replacements. During this time we got as low as 85% of steer  price. When we begin the expansion phase of the cycle this can get as high as 93%. It appears as though we are beginning to at least stop the liquidation. I think we can expect better returns for heifer calves going forward, which will add to the significant returns the cow calf producer is seeing. Of all the profit made in the whole cattle business right now the cow calf producer is capturing most of it. This will continue for the next few years and the extra dollars from the heifers will just add to it.
Calf market was stronger this week too, again defying the seasonal 

Shortgrass SelectVAC Gold Calf Sale 2

Regular Sale with Calves Plus Feeders & Slaughter Cows & Bulls

We Will Feature

Char X Calves under the Select Gold Program Plus VBP

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Overnight / Pre-weigh
Pre-weigh Feeders will be sold sorted in lots of your own Cattle

Full Broadcast & online Bidding

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Listed for Marc Robitaille

Char x Calves - Cows on year long mineral, selectvac gold,VBP ,inforce at birth, bovigold vision som to grass—Sherwood Char bulls sire side —grass and milk no creep

Slaughter cow in the mid 170s mostly with a few cows in the low 180s. Bulls pretty steady. This market is a little lower than the highs but still historically very high. Had 3500 calves and they sold very well. I sold my own calves and averaged exactly $200 per head more on the same day and basically the same weight as last year.  Sure looks like we bottomed the calf market in mid September. The cattle futures complex continues to improve as does the cash fat cattle price in the US. Other commodities including grain continue to improve too, with wheat improving nearly $1 a bushel (on the futures) since August. It looks like interest rate relief is starting to manifest itself in better demand for all commodities, including cattle. Exports are also improving.  Have a good weekend. Ian

Slaughter cows and bulls fully steady on low volumes. I think we can expect this market to hold up better than usual as we head into the fall run. Crazy demand for ground beef and limited numbers of slaughter cows make this a very solid market. Yearlings a little lower, especially the heavier steers. Calf market very strong, buoyed by rapidly improving 2025 cattle futures.  It seems that we bottomed the futures and the calf market in mid September. Maybe we’ll see an improving market going forward?  It certainly has moved higher in the last week or 2. Ian 

Regular Sale with Feeders / Slaughter Cows & Bulls

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Overnight / Pre-weigh
Pre-weigh Feeders will be sold sorted in lots of your own Cattle

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Regular Sale Featuring Fall Forward Calf Sale Plus Feeders / Slaughter Cows & Bulls

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Overnight / Pre-weigh
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Fall Forward Calf Sale

We will feature Live ring sale

Plus Full Bidding and Broadcast of Forward Delivery Lots on Dryland Cattle online bidding

Listed for Rodvang Ranch Ltd. Fall Forward Calves

Listed for Byron Kelts Fall Forward Calves

Regular Sale with Feeders / Slaughter Cows & Bulls

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FALL CALF MARKET 2024

Some of our customers have been inquiring about our expectations and insights for the fall calf market. I wanted to share a few of my observations and general thoughts on the current market situation.

• While prices have come down in the last few weeks, they are still the highest in history. The calves you sell this fall will fetch the highest prices you’ve ever received.

• Fundamentals in the cattle market are solid and actually getting better. Retail beef prices are record high and getting higher and demand is excellent. Slaughter of fed cattle is going down as the industry deals with less numbers. Feedlot placements are lower YTD which means less supply in the months ahead. Cow numbers are low and retention is not occur- ring yet. Finally, corn prices are the lowest in years as the US is dealing with a record crop.

• The cattle market is actually performing exactly as was forecast months ago.

  What is causing concern in the market right now? The main issue is that the entire cattle futures complex has been under significant pressure in the past few weeks. This has affected the prices of yearlings and calves to some extent, but not as much as the drop in futures prices. Why has this happened?

  1. In the past few weeks, there has been a decrease in the prices of all commodities such as grains, steel, aluminum, copper, oil, and lumber. This is due to the end of an inflationary peri- od, leading to a moderation in prices and a decrease in demand for goods. Traders are selling off commodities in general, including cattle, despite the positive fundamentals.

  2. Cash prices of cattle are much higher than the futures. This is called a strong basis envi- ronment. When cattle are priced against a lower futures market, their value decreases. This is reflected in forward sales, where cattle for immediate delivery are worth more than those for future delivery. The lower futures market is particularly affecting the value of the calves, as they are marketed next year.

  So, what are your marketing options? I think these are the most common options with some things to think about.

  1. Forward Delivery. Some things to think about here. Remember that you’re pricing your calves against a futures market that has been under a lot of pressure recently. Also, not many agricultural consultants would recommend selling your entire crop on one day, but never mind, the same day every year. Also, when you sell your calves this way, a lot of the responsibilities and costs that the auction market has traditionally carried now fall on you. You will now be responsible for some sorting, loading, weighing, and feeding. Additionally, you may sell your calves to different buyers, which could require loading at different times or even on different days. Be prepared to handle this. Make sure you know what you have. Averaging 525 lbs is sig- nificantly different outcome then averaging 575 lbs as 50 lbs equals $250/head.

2. Auction Market. You can sell at auction whenever you choose, but you will take the price of the day. All the details and hassle are taken care of.

3. Sell In Portions. Sell a portion of your inventory and retain some until spring. Typically, peo- ple keep lightweight steers and heifers and add some weight to them. This can take advantage of a higher spring market and average out your price risk.

4. Backgrounding. Background all the calves till spring. This transfers all the price risk to the spring. However, feeding calves over the winter comes with health risks, labor, interest costs, and carries no guarantee it is a better market in the spring.

I’ve been trading in this market for almost 30 years and have made plenty of mistakes in the pro- cess. Just like you, my livelihood depends on this market, and I have to make investment decisions for myself and my family every day. One thing is certain - no one can predict what this market will do - no one! All I can do is share my own thoughts while making my marketing decisions. Re- member, it’s impossible to make a mistake here. Despite the recent downward pricing, your calves are more valuable now than ever before. As a cow-calf producer, you’re in a powerful position. So, don’t focus too much on the negativity. It is a fantastic year. Calves will be high all fall.

I want to share my personal thoughts. First, I am hesitant to price any inventory in the current market environment. The cattle market has much stronger fundamentals than what the futures are currently projecting. I believe we will see improvements in the futures in the next few weeks. Sec- ond, the weight of the calf is crucial for your earnings. An additional 50 lbs on your calf is worth $250, so keep that in mind. The total price of the calf depends more on its weight than on its price. The price per pound is less important than it has been.

Remember, the market is currently strong and has the potential to improve further. So time is on your side. There’s a lot of unnecessary negativity out there, considering the actual situation.

If there’s anything we can assist you with, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
Also, keep in mind that all my comments are worth exactly what you paid for them!

Ian

Regular Sale with Feeders / Slaughter Cows & Bulls

You can choose the way you market your cattle.

Overnight / Pre-weigh
Pre-weigh Feeders will be sold sorted in lots of your own Cattle

To book in cattle click here to contact us!

Regular Sale with Feeders / Slaughter Cows & Bulls

You can choose the way you market your cattle.

Overnight / Pre-weigh
Pre-weigh Feeders will be sold sorted in lots of your own Cattle

To book in cattle click here to contact us!

Featuring Our

Dryland Cattle Summer Classic Yearling Sale 2

We will feature Live ring sale of Yearlings

Plus Full Bidding and Broadcast of Forward Delivery Lots

on Dryland Cattle

Lot 12

These Cattle are Sorted /Weighed

at the Market will sell on Video

Lot 13

Regular Sale with Feeders / Slaughter Cows & Bulls

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Overnight / Pre-weigh
Pre-weigh Feeders will be sold sorted in lots of your own Cattle

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Featuring Our

Dryland Cattle Summer Classic Yearling Sale

We will feature Live ring sale of Yearlings

Plus Full Bidding and Broadcast of Forward Delivery Lots on DLMS

Click here to go to DLMS and Full Listing

Slaughter cows and bulls right back where they were a couple weeks ago, cows crowding $2. Grass yearling steers bring about $3200 a head. I think there’s room for these grass cattle to get a little higher in the weeks ahead.  The Q1 2025 live cattle futures have been under a little pressure, feed grains just won’t break, and I think many feedlots aren’t quite ready for cattle. Add to that a little sticker shock on the price on these yearlings and the fact that the fat cattle aren’t making tons of money and you get a market that’s a little tentative. Still a very good market. Ian

Listed for Cromarty Land & Cattle

28 pairs - Mostly Black with a few Red Middle aged Cows with Simmental influenced calves

Calves have received 8-way, Bovishield Gold and have been banded

Cows are vaccinated annually and have not been exposed to a bull.

Regular Sale

Full Broadcast with Online Bidding

Sale Starts at 9 am

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Regular Sale featuring Cow/Calf Pairs

Full Broadcast with Online Bidding

Sale Starts at 9 am

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Listed for Zenon Ostaschewski

Complete Herd Dispersal of 40 Red & Black Cow/Calf Pairs

10 - 2nd Calvers

15 - 4th Calvers

7 - 5th Calvers

8 - Young Mature Cows

Slaughter cows and bulls fully steady. Feeder cattle starting to make a seasonal move higher too. Ian 

Equipment & Miscellaneous Consignment Sale

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Slaughter cows and bulls inching higher again. Lots of cows over $2 now. Feeder cattle up $2-3. Ian