Market Summary

Slaughter cows and bulls $5-7 lower. This is what almost happens this time of year but it’s still very strong.  Supplies are tight and demand for ground beef is very strong.  Yearlings also $5-10 lower, pressured by much lower live cattle futures.  What is the reason for lower futures?  Firstly, the US government decided to open the border for Mexican feeder cattle into the US. This will increase the supply of cattle in the US, lowering the price.  This is part of the US governments ongoing campaign to lower the beef price and sort of caught the market by surprise. Secondly, beef demand appears to have stalled out at these high prices, raising concerns about the ability of the market to continue to demand higher prices.  And lastly, Tyson announced the closure of 2 more packing plants and the intention to sell one more in Washington state. If this plant eventually closes it will impact basis in Western Canada. So what does all this mean in terms of calf pricing this fall?  I think we can still expect a near record market. Supplies are extremely tight and demand is still very strong even though it’s not increasing.  The futures have had to digest a steady stream of bad news but I can’t help but think that’s coming to an end soon.  I think we can expect a more steady market at these historically high levels but I doubt we go higher from here. The cow calf guy has the hammer.  Ian

Market News

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