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  • Box 615 Veteran AB Canada (map)

Slaughter cows and bulls $3-4 higher, following the seasonal.  This market usually peaks in mid March and it looks like it won’t be much different this year.  All classes of feeders stronger. Some September delivery grass steers brought $3700 per head today.  We are getting lots of questions regarding tariffs and how it would affect the beef business. It’s very difficult to know what to say because there is just so much that is unknown and unknowable. We are dealing with an increasingly unpredictable trading partner. However, there is a few things that we do know.  Firstly, these proposed tariffs do not stop trade. Trade will continue but with price adjustments. It’s important to remember that the proposed 25% tariffs would apply only to the 20% of Canadian beef production that we export to the US. So, in effect, it’s a 5% tariff on all production.  Secondly, it’s important to consider the effects that broad based tariffs would have on the Canadian dollar. If we get tariffs on oil, automobiles and parts, and forestry products there is no way in the world that the Canadian dollar stays at 0.695. We would expect at least a 4-5 cent reduction in value which gives us close to 10% improvement in beef pricing.  Thirdly, the packers are  continuing to offer contracts on finished cattle even with the threat of tariffs, although at a discount.  The amount of this discount is presently about $80-100 per head less than what was offered before all this started.  That would translate into about 0.15 per pound on a 600 lb steer. So instead of getting $3000 per head we’d get $2900.  That’s hardly a disaster. I want to make it clear that I’m not an expert in any of these things and I don’t know as much as many industry participants. However, the bottom line is that while there is reason for concern there certainly is not reason for panic.  Ian

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